Reading the thermal uncertainty cone
On the 14-day chart, the central curve represents the most likely evolution, surrounded by a shaded band illustrating warmer and cooler ensemble scenarios.
Instant Weather France › 14-Day Forecast
This page presents the expected meteorological evolution over two full weeks in your municipality, displaying both the median forecast scenario and the ensemble temperature range.
On the 14-day chart, the central curve represents the most likely evolution, surrounded by a shaded band illustrating warmer and cooler ensemble scenarios.
Each day features a reliability index: a score above 80% signals a well-established weather regime, whereas a score near 50% indicates uncertainty in storm tracks.
The daily summary synthesizes expected rainfall totals, peak wind speed and temperature departures from seasonal norms.
Forecasts are generally very precise up to 5 days for rain timing and temperatures, and provide a reliable trend on the overall weather regime between days 6 and 14.
It means that 6 out of 10 numerical ensemble members simulate a rain system passing over your municipality on that day.
Ensemble scenarios are updated four times a day to incorporate the latest global atmospheric observations.